According to the latest survey by PPIC (Public Policy Institute of California), former Health Secretary Xavier Becerra leads the California governor's race with 23% support among likely voters, followed by Steve Hilton — a former Fox News commentator and businessman — with 20%.
Billionaire Tom Steyer ranks third with 15%, while Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (Republican) and former Representative Katie Porter (Democrat) each receive 13% and 12% respectively.
PPIC Survey Director Mark Baldassare stated this is the first time survey results show two candidates — one Democrat and one Republican — both surpassing 20%, increasing the likelihood that the November general election will be a cross-party matchup.
Becerra surged after Representative Eric Swalwell withdrew from the race amid sexual assault allegations. Hilton also gained momentum after receiving endorsement from President Donald Trump in early April 2026 — though the percentage of Republican voters who believe the country is heading in the right direction declined from 64% to 50% in the same survey period.
Becerra has experience confronting Trump — and that is precisely what Democratic voters want to hear right now.
Analysis
This year's California governor's race breaks the familiar script: instead of two Democratic candidates competing for the general election under the state's "top-two" primary system, for the first time in many election cycles, a Republican candidate has a genuine opportunity to advance to November.
Hilton directly benefits from Trump's endorsement — a decisive factor in California's Republican primary, despite the party remaining a minority among statewide voters. Bianco, once considered an expected MAGA candidate, is gradually losing ground as Hilton absorbs all momentum from the right wing.
On the Democratic side, Swalwell's collapse was the decisive factor. Becerra — whose record includes lawsuits against Trump administration policies when he served as California's Attorney General — capitalized perfectly on the heightened anti-Trump sentiment among Democratic voters. Despite having a solid support base, Porter finds herself squeezed between two larger forces.
Notably, the percentage of Republican voters who believe the country is heading in the right direction dropped 14 percentage points in just a few months according to PPIC — suggesting that Trump's support base in California remains fragile and could affect Hilton's appeal in the coming months.
Diaspora Impact
The Vietnamese American community in California — particularly in Little Saigon (Orange County), San Jose, and the East Bay region — comprises approximately 600,000 people, making them one of the most influential Asian American voting blocs in the state.
First, first-generation and 1.5-generation Vietnamese American voters tend to be significantly more conservative than the average Asian American, according to a 2024 AAPI Data survey — making Hilton's rise with Trump's endorsement a signal worth monitoring in areas such as Orange County and Riverside County, where Vietnamese populations are concentrated.
Second, the Vietnamese American small business owner community — restaurants, nail salons, service industries — depends directly on state-level healthcare and labor policies. Becerra's record as California's Attorney General protecting Medi-Cal and workers' rights is a factor with direct impact on this group during the June 2026 primary election.