Thailand’s People’s Party leads polls but faces fresh risk of being blocked again

BANGKOK – Thailand’s most popular political faction, the People’s Party, holds a commanding lead in polls ahead of this weekend’s election, even as skepticism remains over whether the group will be permitted to take power.

Thousands of young supporters have flocked to recent rallies for the party, which has pledged to tackle corruption and reform Thailand’s strict lèse-majesté laws. Despite the momentum, party lawmakers like 31-year-old Rukchanok Srinork expressed doubt about a smooth transition.

"They won’t let us become the government easily," Rukchanok told AFP.

The People’s Party is the latest iteration of the political movement that won the 2023 general election but was blocked from forming a government. During that cycle, military-appointed senators rejected leader Pita Limjaroenrat’s bid for prime minister, and the Constitutional Court later banned Pita from politics and dissolved his party.

A recent survey shows the People’s Party leading its nearest rival by approximately 11 percentage points. The party is particularly dominant among younger demographics, securing support from half of all voters aged 18 to 35.

While military-appointed senators are no longer in parliament, the party faces new legal hurdles. Two of its three prime ministerial candidates currently face charges that could result in them being banned from politics.

The ongoing political landscape in Thailand has reignited the systemic friction between the popular mandate and the country’s entrenched conservative establishment—a powerful coalition of the military and the monarchy. The events of 2023, in which the Move Forward Party was blocked from forming a government despite winning the most seats, appear poised for a reprise. This is more than a mere electoral contest; it is a fundamental stress test for Thailand’s institutional capacity for reform.

The People’s Party, the successor to the dissolved Move Forward, has adopted a digital-first mobilization strategy, leveraging platforms like TikTok to capture a profound generational shift. By centering its platform on bold structural reforms—most notably the controversial proposal to amend Article 112, the lèse-majesté law—the party is directly challenging the traditional power centers. However, this reformist agenda has also made them a primary target of "lawfare," the strategic use of judicial and legal mechanisms to neutralize political challengers and dissolve opposition movements.

From a regional perspective, Thailand’s domestic volatility is being closely monitored by its ASEAN neighbors, including Vietnam. As an economic and diplomatic pillar of the bloc, Thailand's stability is critical to regional cohesion and collective policy initiatives. A progressive administration in Bangkok, focused on human rights and democratic norms, could fundamentally shift ASEAN’s internal dynamics regarding sensitive issues, such as the ongoing crisis in Myanmar. Conversely, if the popular will is sidelined once again, the resulting disenfranchisement could trigger a prolonged wave of unrest, undermining the regional stability that Southeast Asian capitals view as paramount.

For many Vietnamese Americans—particularly those who have lived through the realities of undemocratic regimes—the Thai youth’s struggle for a more open political landscape strikes a deep chord. Whether discussed in the family living room or over coffee in Little Saigon, the narrative of a grassroots movement being suppressed by the ruling elite is a familiar and deeply significant theme for a community that knows all too well the cost of political repression.