ASEAN nations divided over Myanmar military junta’s plan for new elections

CEBU, Philippines — Southeast Asian nations have declined to recognize recent elections held by Myanmar’s military junta, citing a lack of consensus within the regional bloc.

Philippine Foreign Undersecretary Theresa Lazaro announced Monday that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has not reached an agreement to endorse the election results. Speaking after an ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Cebu, Lazaro said several member states are still reviewing the outcome, describing the situation as "evolving."

The elections, which concluded Jan. 25, drew widespread criticism from international monitoring groups. The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party declared victory before official results were released.

ASEAN continues to withhold formal recognition of the military government that seized power in a February 2021 coup. The bloc has maintained a policy of barring Myanmar’s military leaders from attending its high-level summits.

However, internal divisions remain regarding how to engage with the junta. Singapore has called for a total cessation of hostilities and the commencement of inclusive dialogue between all parties.

Thailand offered a different perspective, viewing the elections as a potential opportunity for engagement. Thai officials expressed hope that the polls could mark the "beginning of a transition process" for the conflict-torn nation.

ASEAN’s fractured response to Myanmar’s proposed elections underscores a deepening structural rift within the bloc: a struggle to maintain a unified front against the military junta in Naypyitaw while member states increasingly pivot toward independent, pragmatic diplomacy. The bloc’s official policy remains tethered to the Five-Point Consensus (5PC), a framework widely criticized as ineffective. Yet, as analyst Moe Thuzar observes, it persists as ASEAN’s "only intervention tool at this stage." To date, the only tangible consequences for the junta’s non-compliance have been the downgrading of its diplomatic representation and the revocation of its rotating chairmanship.

The spotlight is now shifting toward the Philippines’ upcoming 2026 chairmanship, which is already facing intense scrutiny. A visit to Naypyitaw by Foreign Affairs Undersecretary Theresa Lazaro in early January—ahead of the scheduled elections—has raised questions regarding Manila’s strategic coordination and whether it sufficiently consulted the ASEAN "Troika" (comprising Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore). While Lazaro defended the mission as a formal expression of disapproval toward the junta’s electoral plans, observers warn that such unilateral maneuvers risk undermining the bloc’s fragile cohesion. How the Philippines navigates the Myanmar crisis during its leadership will serve as a definitive litmus test for ASEAN’s credibility and its capacity to manage the region’s most pressing security challenges.

High-level diplomatic maneuvers within ASEAN rarely have a direct or immediate impact on the day-to-day realities of the Vietnamese-American community. For those working in the nail salon industry or running phở restaurants in Little Saigon, these geopolitical shifts feel worlds away from the practical concerns of sending remittances or navigating the complexities of F2B, H-1B, TPS, and EB-5 visa processes.