Thai experts urge economic strategy rethink amid mounting pressure from China

BANGKOK — Thailand must overhaul its economic strategies to navigate China’s expanding influence, which presents both significant opportunities and mounting risks, experts said at a regional forum Monday.

Scholars and policymakers speaking at Chulalongkorn University urged the country to move past "zero-sum" thinking. They instead called for mutually beneficial partnerships with key regional players, including China, Vietnam, and Indonesia.

The discussion, titled "From Competition to Co-creation: Rethinking China–ASEAN Relations," comes as Thailand’s new government faces intensifying regional competition. Participants reached a consensus that cooperation offers a more sustainable path than direct competition.

Associate Professor Arm Tungnirun warned that China’s low-cost manufacturing capacity is pressuring Thai small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). He noted that the petrochemical and cement industries are particularly vulnerable to these market pressures.

To counter these challenges, Arm proposed that Thailand promote "co-created supply chains." He suggested this could be achieved through clear investment policies and mandatory technology transfers rather than direct confrontation.

The recent policy discussions in Bangkok underscore a pervasive dilemma across the ASEAN bloc: the precarious balancing act between deep-seated economic reliance on China and the preservation of strategic autonomy. The shift in rhetoric toward "co-creation" rather than outright competition is a pragmatic concession to Beijing’s overwhelming economic gravity. This framing is less a vision of equitable partnership and more a survivalist strategy to avoid being sidelined in a Sino-centric regional order.

Thailand’s signaling toward Vietnam and Indonesia as critical partners is particularly significant. It suggests a nascent effort to form a "middle-power" coalition within ASEAN to serve as a counterweight, ensuring the regional economic architecture is not entirely dictated by Beijing. Hanoi and Jakarta are already pursuing similar hedging strategies—leveraging Chinese capital and market access while aggressively diversifying their diplomatic and trade portfolios with the United States, Japan, and India.

The headwinds currently battering Thai small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are identical to those facing the Vietnamese private sector. China’s persistent industrial overcapacity, particularly in low- and mid-tier manufacturing, has unleashed a flood of low-cost goods into Southeast Asian markets. Consequently, the policy prescription for Thailand—accelerating integration into high-value supply chains and securing genuine technology transfers—remains the fundamental challenge for Vietnam as it seeks to bypass the middle-income trap.

While these macro-level strategic shifts may not directly impact the day-to-day operations of a neighborhood phở restaurant or nail salon in Little Saigon, they reflect the broader economic pressures currently shaping Southeast Asia. The financial stability of the region remains deeply personal for our community; the successes or setbacks of economies like Vietnam and Thailand create a ripple effect that touches everything from remittance flows to long-term investment strategies. Ultimately, these shifts influence the broader landscape of family support and the viability of pathways like F2B family sponsorships or EB-5 investment programs, connecting our local prosperity to the economic health of the homeland.