Former Bangladesh prime minister plans return from exile in India

KOLKATA, India — Politicians from Bangladesh’s Awami League are planning a return to the political stage from exile in India, even as their party remains barred from upcoming elections.

Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled to India more than 16 months ago following a mass uprising against her rule. According to a United Nations report, approximately 1,400 people were killed during her administration's final crackdowns on protesters.

Thousands of party members also fled the country, with more than 600 currently in hiding in Kolkata. Bangladesh's interim government has since suspended the Awami League's activities and banned it from participating in the general election scheduled for Feb. 12.

The move follows a court ruling late last year that sentenced Hasina to death in absentia for crimes against humanity.

Despite the legal rulings, Hasina continues to direct party operations from a secret location in Delhi under the supervision of the Indian government. India, a long-time ally of the former prime minister, has so far ignored extradition requests from Bangladesh.

Hasina is currently mobilizing supporters to boycott and disrupt the February vote. The interim government has promised the polls will be Bangladesh's first free and fair elections in more than a decade.

New Delhi’s decision to provide sanctuary to ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and hundreds of senior Awami League officials has escalated into a high-stakes geopolitical standoff, signaling a calculated strategic hedge by India against the current political vacuum in Dhaka. By ignoring extradition requests and permitting Hasina to conduct political operations from its soil, India is effectively prioritizing its long-term alliance with the Awami League over the immediate legitimacy of the interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus.

For the interim administration in Dhaka, this arrangement presents a severe challenge to national sovereignty and security. The presence of a de facto government-in-exile just across the border, backed by a regional power, directly undermines efforts to stabilize the country and organize credible elections. The Yunus government now faces a precarious democratic dilemma: holding a general election that excludes a major political faction would damage the vote’s inclusivity and legitimacy, yet reintegrating a force that remains active in exile could trigger widespread domestic unrest.

The relative ease with which exiled politicians are operating in hubs like Kolkata suggests they enjoy state protection rather than mere humanitarian asylum. This is not just a refugee crisis; it is a tolerated base of operations. As these external strategic calculations intensify, there is a growing risk that Bangladesh will be transformed into a theater for regional proxy competition, leaving its domestic stability vulnerable to the dictates of foreign interests.

While the political instability involving Bangladeshi exiles in India carries no direct weight for the Vietnamese-American community—whether in the business corridors of Little Saigon, the nail salon industry, or at the local phở shop—the optics of the situation may feel familiar. For many in the diaspora, the image of a displaced political class seeking refuge in a neighboring state can stir historical echoes of our own community’s past. Even though the geopolitical drivers and specific causes differ entirely from the Vietnamese experience, the narrative of exile and the hope for a return to one’s homeland remain deeply evocative themes within our collective memory.