China’s population shrinks for fourth straight year as birth rate hits record low

BEIJING — China’s population shrank for the fourth consecutive year in 2025 as birth rates plummeted to a new record low, according to government data.

The number of recorded births fell to 7.92 million, or 5.63 births per 1,000 people. This represents a 17% decrease from the 9.54 million births reported in 2024 and marks the lowest level since record-keeping began in 1949.

The decline persisted despite a series of government policies aimed at incentivizing citizens to have more children.

The demographic shift intensifies concerns over a rapidly aging society and a shrinking workforce. Experts warn these trends could lead to significant long-term negative impacts on the national economy.

China’s demographic crisis has transitioned from a distant forecast to a structural reality, fundamentally altering the nation’s economic trajectory. A fourth consecutive year of population decline underscores a critical policy failure: Beijing’s fiscal incentives have proven insufficient to counter the systemic "three mountains" of prohibitive housing, education, and living costs. Furthermore, the shift in social norms among the generation raised under the one-child policy has created a psychological barrier to procreation that state subsidies cannot easily dismantle.

The economic model that powered China’s rise—predicated on a "demographic dividend" of abundant, low-cost labor—is facing obsolescence. As the labor pool shrinks, rising manufacturing costs are eroding global competitiveness, while a ballooning elderly population threatens the solvency of an already strained social security apparatus.

For Vietnam, this demographic shift presents a complex strategic landscape. In the immediate term, the erosion of China's cost advantage accelerates the "China Plus One" strategy, as multinational firms migrate supply chains to Vietnam to tap into its younger, more cost-effective workforce.

However, a protracted Chinese slowdown is a double-edged sword for Hanoi. Reduced purchasing power in the world’s second-largest economy will inevitably dampen demand for Vietnamese exports and stifle the recovery of the tourism sector. More significantly, a China weakened by internal structural decay may destabilize the regional geopolitical equilibrium. For policymakers in Hanoi, the challenge lies in capitalizing on the immediate industrial windfall while insulating the national economy from the long-term volatility of a stagnating neighbor.