Georgia: A Caucasus nation at Eurasia’s crossroads caught between Western and Russian ambitions

TBILISI, Georgia — Georgia has been gripped by a deepening political crisis since October 2024, as the nation of 3.9 million people struggles to navigate its position at the intersection of Eastern Europe and Western Asia.

The former Soviet republic, which shares borders with Russia, Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, has faced centuries of geopolitical shifts. Its history stretches back to ancient kingdoms and the early adoption of Christianity in the fourth century, followed by annexation by the Russian Empire in 1801.

Following the Russian Revolution, Georgia enjoyed a brief period of independence before the Red Army annexed the territory in 1921, incorporating it into the Soviet Union. Georgia later declared its secession from the USSR in April 1991.

The decade following independence was defined by economic instability and separatist wars in the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The country’s trajectory shifted significantly after the 2003 Rose Revolution, when Georgia began pursuing pro-Western foreign policies with the goal of joining the European Union and NATO.

This westward shift severely strained relations with Moscow, culminating in the 2008 Russo-Georgian War. Russia continues to occupy portions of Georgian territory today, even as the country maintains its status as an official candidate for EU membership.

Georgia serves as a definitive case study for "frontline" states caught in the post-Soviet geopolitical divide. Following its 2003 pivot toward Western integration, Tbilisi emerged as a direct challenge to Moscow’s asserted "sphere of influence." The 2008 conflict established a clear Kremlin red line, signaling that aspirations for NATO membership would incur prohibitive costs—a template for regional coercion that has since become a standard Russian playbook.

Today, Tbilisi’s Euro-Atlantic ambitions are colliding with hard institutional realities. Russia’s de facto occupation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia effectively freezes Georgia’s NATO path, as accession would immediately risk triggering the alliance's Article 5 collective defense clause. Similarly, while Georgia holds official EU candidate status, the deepening political crisis of late 2024 poses a fundamental threat to its progression. Brussels remains firm on democratic stability and institutional alignment; the current domestic volatility threatens to derail the accession process entirely.

On the economic front, aggressive liberalization has fostered a theoretically competitive business environment. However, geopolitical risk remains a persistent shadow. Institutional investors must continually discount for the perennial threat of renewed conflict with Moscow or systemic domestic unrest. Ultimately, Georgia’s success is contingent not only on internal reform but on the broader "geopolitical weather"—a variable over which Tbilisi exercises little to no agency.

Georgia’s geopolitical narrative has no direct impact on the economic or immigration interests of the Vietnamese-American community. It doesn't move the needle for the nail salon industry, phở restaurants, or the volume of remittances, nor does it affect visa categories like F2B, H-1B, TPS, or EB-5. However, from a cultural and historical perspective, Georgia’s struggle for sovereignty and its determination to chart an independent path while living in the shadow of a massive neighbor resonates deeply. It mirrors the very themes often debated in Little Saigons across the country, striking a chord with the diaspora’s own reflections on Vietnamese history and national identity.