Iran faces calls for independent probe amid dispute over protest death toll

Calls are mounting in Iran for an independent investigation into the number of people killed during recent protests, following a government announcement that it would oversee the release of victims' names.

The government’s move is viewed as an effort to debunk allegations of crimes against humanity and reports placing the death toll as high as 30,000. The official death toll released by the Iran Martyrs Foundation stands at 3,117, a figure that includes members of the security forces.

Iranian reformists argue the government's process lacks transparency. Mohsen Borhani, a law professor at the University of Tehran, described the publication of names as a positive step but suggested creating a website where the public can directly upload victim information.

Many families currently fear government retaliation if they come forward to identify relatives killed by security forces.

Due to deep-seated public distrust of official data, analyst Ahmad Zeidabadi has proposed that the United Nations deploy a fact-finding mission to Iran.

An unofficial committee has also been formed to identify tens of thousands of individuals who are believed to remain in state custody.

The widening discrepancy between official and independent casualty counts in Iran’s recent unrest has triggered a profound crisis of confidence in the state. With government figures citing approximately 3,000 fatalities against unofficial estimates reaching as high as 30,000, the chasm in data has effectively eroded public trust in state institutions.

Tehran’s decision to publish a formal list of the deceased serves as a high-stakes gamble in narrative management. While intended as a gesture of transparency to regain control of the discourse, the move is a double-edged sword. Should the disclosure be perceived as sanitized or incomplete, it risks backfiring, potentially fueling further societal resentment rather than quenching it. Notably, even domestic reformist analysts are now calling for a United Nations-led investigation—a significant pivot that signals a loss of faith in internal mechanisms. This demand suggests that even those within the political establishment view international oversight as the only remaining path to a credible accounting of the facts.

The demographic profile of those detained further complicates the political outlook for the administration. Data indicates that the majority of detainees belong to the 1980–1985 cohort—individuals who serve as the economic mainstays of their households. This reveals that the movement has moved beyond a youth-led phenomenon to include a more established generation grappling with systemic socio-economic grievances. The government's reliance on mass arrests and expedited sentencing may ultimately prove counterproductive, risks cultivating a disciplined new generation of dissidents with direct experience of state repression.