Iran’s leader warns US of regional war as Middle East tensions soar

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei warned that any U.S. military strike against Iran would trigger a regional war, though he maintained that Tehran would not be the one to initiate a conflict.

The warning comes as Iran grapples with a wave of domestic unrest that began in late December 2025, fueled by economic instability and the devaluation of the rial. Khamenei characterized the violent protests as a "foiled coup."

U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly considered supporting the protesters and launching an attack on Iran before deciding against the move. However, Washington has continued its military buildup in the Middle East, deploying the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and other strategic assets to the region.

Tehran has vowed to retaliate against any aggression by targeting U.S. bases and warships, as well as regional allies. Iranian officials specifically identified Israel as a primary target in the event of an escalation.

Despite the military posturing, diplomatic channels remain open. Tehran signaled a willingness to negotiate its nuclear program, provided that its missile capabilities are excluded from any potential deal.

Both President Trump and high-ranking Iranian security officials confirmed that ongoing dialogues are currently taking place between the two nations.

The current standoff between Washington and Tehran serves as a textbook exercise in geopolitical brinkmanship, defined by a high-stakes display of military posturing coupled with a search for diplomatic off-ramps. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s recent rhetoric functions as a dual-track strategy: it seeks to consolidate a hardline domestic position following recent internal unrest while projecting a credible deterrent against the Trump administration’s regional ambitions.

For the White House, the simultaneous deployment of significant military assets and the signaling of a willingness to negotiate remains the cornerstone of its "maximum pressure" campaign. The strategic objective is to leverage overwhelming force to extract concessions from Tehran without descending into a full-scale conventional war—an outcome that would be fiscally prohibitive and politically unpredictable. However, the concentration of military hardware in such a volatile theater leaves little margin for error. The primary risk remains a tactical miscalculation; in a landscape this dense with kinetic potential, a minor incident or a misunderstanding could trigger an escalatory spiral that neither side can easily contain.

The volatility in the Persian Gulf carries significant stakes for Vietnam. As a net oil importer, Hanoi views any potential Middle Eastern conflict as a direct threat to its macroeconomic stability. Even a localized skirmish could severely disrupt energy transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint, sending global crude prices into a tailspin.

For the Vietnamese economy, such a shock would manifest in surging production costs and heightened inflationary pressure, potentially undermining the government’s annual GDP growth targets. Given these downstream risks, Vietnamese policymakers are maintaining a vigilant watch on the Gulf, recognizing that regional instability there translates directly into economic headwinds at home.

Potential conflict in the Middle East could trigger a global energy shock, with the resulting price hikes felt across the Vietnamese-American community. For businesses in hubs like Little Saigon, rising fuel and utility costs would directly impact the bottom line. This is particularly critical for the nail salon industry and phở restaurants, which typically operate on razor-thin profit margins and remain highly vulnerable to any sudden increase in overhead.