Military-backed parties poised for victory in Myanmar elections held amid civil war

NAYPYIDAW, Myanmar — Voters in Myanmar headed to the polls Sunday for the second phase of military-organized elections, a process international observers have criticized as a move to formalize the ruling junta's grip on power.

The second round follows a first phase marked by low voter participation as a nationwide civil war continues to destabilize the country of 51 million people. Myanmar has been engulfed in conflict since the 2021 coup when the military ousted the civilian government and detained leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

The National League for Democracy (NLD), the party led by Suu Kyi that won a landslide in 2020, was dissolved after failing to register for the current vote. Many other opposition parties faced similar dissolutions.

The United Nations and several Western nations have characterized the elections as lacking credibility, describing them as neither free nor fair.

The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) maintains a significant lead after winning 90 of the 102 lower house seats contested in the first phase on Dec. 28. Official figures reported voter turnout for that round at 52.13%.

Data shows that at least 16,600 civilians have been killed in the ongoing conflict since the military takeover.

Myanmar’s recent electoral exercise was less a democratic milestone than a choreographed political performance designed to institutionalize the military junta's grip on power. With the dissolution of Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) and a widespread boycott by opposition forces, the landslide victory for the military-aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) was a foregone conclusion. Rather than reflecting the popular will, the results highlight the success of a systematic campaign to eliminate all viable political rivals.

Voter turnout, reported at just over 52% in the initial phase, represents a sharp decline from the 2015 and 2020 cycles—a clear indicator of public apathy and a form of silent civil resistance. While Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has characterized the proceedings as a success, the disconnect between the state’s narrative and the reality on the ground is stark. For the international community, a government forged through this process will suffer from a fundamental lack of legitimacy, ensuring Myanmar's continued status as a pariah state.

For regional stakeholders, particularly within ASEAN, the outcome deepens an already complex diplomatic quagmire. Hanoi and other regional capitals face the difficult task of managing a crisis in a member state where the governing body holds de facto control but lacks de jure recognition. Persistent instability in Myanmar remains a primary threat to the security and broader integration goals of Southeast Asia.