Russia and Myanmar sign 5-year military pact to deepen strategic alliance

YANGON – Russia and Myanmar have signed a five-year military cooperation agreement, Moscow announced Tuesday, solidifying an alliance analysts say is critical to the military junta’s continued grip on power.

The Myanmar military has relied heavily on support from Russia and China to maintain its weapons supply since seizing power in a 2021 coup that sparked a nationwide civil war. Russian-made aircraft have been instrumental in launching airstrikes to suppress rebel forces, though conflict monitors say these strikes frequently target civilians and may constitute war crimes.

The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the new pact remains in effect until 2030. The announcement followed a visit to Myanmar on Monday by Sergei Shoigu, the Kremlin’s top security official.

Myanmar state media confirmed the deal aims to "strengthen defense cooperation" but did not provide specific details. Reports indicate the relationship is reciprocal, with Myanmar allegedly shipping equipment to Russia to support its war in Ukraine.

During the visit, Shoigu stated that Russia "fully supports" the Myanmar government in its efforts to protect national security and territorial integrity.

This military accord is more than a diplomatic formality; it is the institutionalization of a partnership that has become a critical lifeline for Myanmar’s ruling junta. For Moscow, the agreement secures a strategic anchor in Southeast Asia and a resilient market for defense exports—a vital necessity as the Kremlin seeks to bypass Western isolation driven by the conflict in Ukraine.

Regionally, the pact deepens the existing fractures within ASEAN, which is already struggling to project a unified front on the Myanmar crisis. By openly fortifying its alliance with the junta, Russia has effectively neutered the bloc’s diplomatic initiatives, most notably the "Five-Point Consensus," rendering them increasingly unenforceable.

This puts member states like Vietnam in an increasingly precarious position. Hanoi must now navigate the friction between its long-standing strategic defense ties with Moscow and its obligations to ASEAN, all while managing the fallout of a civil war on its doorstep. The direct military backing of an ASEAN member state by an extra-regional power sets a destabilizing precedent. It not only complicates the path to a domestic resolution in Myanmar but threatens to fundamentally recalibrate the regional security balance for years to come.

While this development has little direct impact on the daily lives of Vietnamese Americans, it remains a significant concern for those who follow Southeast Asian affairs. Russia’s expanding military presence and its support for a regional junta raise serious red flags regarding long-term instability and potential humanitarian fallout.