Democrats lead Republicans in key Minnesota races, new poll shows

MINNESOTA — Democratic candidates are leading their Republican opponents in several key Minnesota races, including the contests for governor and the U.S. Senate, according to a new Emerson College poll.

The survey of Minnesota voters shows Democrats holding advantages in the gubernatorial race, the U.S. Senate, and general state legislative ballots.

In hypothetical matchups to succeed retiring Governor Tim Walz, Amy Klobuchar maintains a double-digit lead over potential challengers. Klobuchar leads Republican State House Speaker Lisa Demuth 51% to 38% and holds a wider 53% to 31% margin over MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell.

In the race for the U.S. Senate, Democratic candidates Peggy Flanagan and Angie Craig both lead Republican Michele Tafoya. Flanagan, the current lieutenant governor, leads Tafoya 47% to 40%, while Representative Craig leads 47% to 41%.

Early polling in Minnesota indicates a formidable advantage for Democrats in a state that, while traditionally leaning blue, remains a critical battleground. The most significant development is Senator Amy Klobuchar’s pivot to the gubernatorial race. A fixture of national politics, Klobuchar’s move from Washington back to the state level represents a major strategic shift in her career trajectory. Her commanding lead—particularly over a polarizing figure like Mike Lindell—underscores the enduring electoral strength of her moderate profile and statewide name recognition.

The data also illuminates a widening ideological fissure within the Minnesota GOP. The contrast between Lisa Demuth, representing the party’s traditionalist wing, and Lindell, a staunch ally of former President Trump, highlights a struggle for the party's direction. Lindell’s significant deficit in head-to-head matchups suggests that his populist appeal may be hitting a hard ceiling, struggling to gain traction beyond a core base of supporters.

While the gubernatorial contest currently favors the Democrats, the race for the U.S. Senate appears significantly more volatile. Narrower margins in early polling suggest this will emerge as a key frontline in the fight for congressional control. While these figures represent an early snapshot, they frame an election cycle defined by Democratic incumbency strength and a Republican party grappling with a choice between ideological purity and general election viability.

Minnesota, and the Twin Cities in particular, is home to a vibrant Vietnamese-American and Hmong diaspora. Although polling data rarely provides a granular look at ethnic demographics, these communities have become increasingly influential voting blocs. Whether it's the entrepreneurs running phở restaurants and nail salons or families navigating the complexities of F2B and H-1B visas, local economic conditions and social policies weigh heavily on their decisions. In a high-stakes Senate race, the collective voice of the Vietnamese community could easily become the tie-breaker.