Japan’s PM Takaichi calls snap election, faces highly unpredictable race

TOKYO – Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has called for an early snap election for the lower house on Feb. 8, setting the stage for what analysts describe as the country's most unpredictable political contest in years.

Takaichi, Japan’s first female prime minister, maintains a personal approval rating of over 60% in recent polls despite a slight downward trend. However, support for her ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) languishes at approximately 35%, casting doubt on whether her individual popularity can translate into votes for LDP candidates.

Takaichi’s strongest support base lies with younger voters, a demographic historically characterized by significantly lower turnout compared to older generations.

The LDP also faces a major strategic shift as it campaigns without its longtime coalition partner, the Komeito party, for the first time in 26 years. Komeito has instead joined a centrist bloc alongside the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party.

The ruling party faces additional pressure from the far-right Sanseito party, which is actively courting the LDP's conservative base.

Political observers noted that the decision to hold a winter election introduces further uncertainty, as heavy snowfall could suppress voter turnout.

Prime Minister Takaichi’s decision to trigger a snap election is a calculated gamble aimed at parlaying her personal popularity into a definitive mandate. By moving early, she seeks to decouple her individual political capital from the broader public disillusionment with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). However, the widening gap between her personal approval ratings and the party’s sagging support underscores a fundamental disconnect: while the electorate may favor Takaichi’s leadership, they remain deeply skeptical of the LDP machinery.

The political landscape is further complicated by a seismic structural shift. The departure of Komeito from its 26-year coalition with the LDP—and its subsequent pivot to the opposition—has fundamentally altered the electoral calculus. Komeito’s ability to mobilize a disciplined voter base now bolsters a unified centrist front, threatening to peel away moderate voters who previously viewed the LDP-led alliance as the only viable path to stability.

Simultaneously, the LDP’s traditional conservative stronghold is being hollowed out by the rise of the far-right Sanseito party. By leveraging populist grievances over immigration and inflation, Sanseito is successfully attacking the LDP from its right flank, eroding a core constituency the ruling party once took for granted. Consequently, this election serves as more than just a referendum on Takaichi’s premiership; it is a critical test of the coalition model that has underpinned Japanese political dominance for decades.