Japan PM: US alliance faces 'collapse' if Tokyo fails to act on Taiwan

TOKYO – Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi warned Sunday that the security alliance between Tokyo and Washington would crumble if Japan failed to defend U.S. forces during a potential conflict over Taiwan.

Speaking on TV Asahi ahead of a general election scheduled for February, Takaichi reaffirmed her hardline stance on regional security. She presented a specific scenario involving a coordinated operation to evacuate Japanese and American citizens from Taiwan in the event of hostilities.

"If the U.S. military is attacked while acting jointly with Japan, and Japan does nothing and simply flees home, then the Japan-U.S. alliance will collapse," Takaichi said during the broadcast.

Diplomatic relations between Tokyo and Beijing have deteriorated since November 2025, following Takaichi’s characterization of a Chinese attack on Taiwan as an "existential threat" to Japan. Under Japanese law, such a designation could justify a military response.

Beijing has reacted sharply to these statements, maintaining that Taiwan is its territory. China has long refused to rule out the use of force to achieve unification with the self-ruled island.

The recent rhetoric from Takaichi Sanae represents more than a mere warning; it serves as the clearest articulation yet of a fundamental pivot in Japan’s national security doctrine. By invoking the specter of "collapse," Tokyo is signaling a dual-track strategy: reassuring Washington of its commitment to burden-sharing while putting Beijing on notice that Japan will not remain a bystander in a Taiwan Strait contingency. The focus on "non-combatant evacuation operations" is a calculated legal maneuver, providing a legitimate framework for the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) to establish a presence in a conflict zone—effectively navigating the long-standing constraints of Japan's pacifist constitution.

Regionally, this shift significantly raises the stakes. It recalibrates the Taiwan crisis from a trilateral friction point between China, Taiwan, and the U.S. into a broader confrontation involving Asia’s third-largest economic and military power.

For Vietnam, any conflict in the Taiwan Strait would constitute a strategic catastrophe. Such a crisis would paralyze the critical maritime arteries of the South China Sea, dealing a severe blow to the national economy. Geopolitically, Hanoi would face intense pressure to abandon its traditional non-alignment policy and "choose sides," a scenario the Vietnamese leadership has spent decades trying to avoid. While a more assertive Japan may serve as a necessary counterweight to Chinese expansionism, it simultaneously heightens the risk of strategic miscalculation and a regional conflagration that no party is truly prepared to manage.

Rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait are sparking deep concern across the Vietnamese-American community, particularly among elders whose perspectives are still shaped by the lived experience of war. From the community hubs of Little Saigon to the family-run nail salons and phở restaurants that form the heart of the diaspora, the anxiety is palpable. The primary fear is for the safety of relatives back home and the risk that regional instability could undo the hard-won peace many sought when they first settled in the U.S. There is a growing worry that a conflict could disrupt the flow of remittances or delay the processing of vital F2B, EB-5, and other family reunification visas that keep our transpacific ties strong.