Vietnam lobsters dominate China market but face major challenge as Canada returns

Vietnam surpassed Canada to become China’s largest lobster supplier in 2025, according to Chinese customs data, as trade tariffs reshaped the competitive landscape.

Vietnamese exports reached more than 24,000 tons last year, capturing nearly 35% of the Chinese market. Canada, which led the market in 2024, fell to second place with 15,355 tons, representing a 22% market share.

The shift followed China’s decision to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian lobster in March 2025. This trade barrier provided a significant competitive advantage for Vietnamese exporters throughout the year.

Vietnam’s total shrimp and lobster export value to China reached $1.3 billion in 2025, a 55% increase over 2024. Green lobster exports alone contributed $840 million, a 131% surge.

The growth trend continued into early 2026, with export turnover exceeding $100 million in January.

Market competition is expected to intensify again on March 1, 2026, when China is scheduled to lift the 25% tariff on Canadian lobster.

Vietnam’s ascent to the top of China’s lobster market in 2025 represents an opportunistic breakthrough rather than a structural shift in long-term competitiveness. This surge was primarily catalyzed by trade policy tailwinds—specifically, the 25% retaliatory tariffs Beijing imposed on Canadian imports—which created a significant market vacuum. Vietnamese exporters moved aggressively to fill this gap, leveraging geographical proximity and logistical advantages to ensure the delivery of live, high-value products.

However, this dominant position remains precarious. Vietnam’s current market share is less a reflection of product differentiation and more a byproduct of a temporary sidelining of its primary competitor. The industry faces a definitive litmus test in March 2026, when the expected removal of tariffs will allow Canadian suppliers to re-enter the fray. Canada maintains a formidable reputation for quality consistency and strong brand equity within China’s premium hospitality and fine-dining sectors—segments where brand prestige often outweighs price sensitivity.

The year 2026 will determine whether Vietnamese exporters can defend their gains or if they will be relegated back to the lower-margin tiers of the market. Industry guidance from the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) underscores the urgency of this transition. For Vietnam to sustain its lead, the sector must move beyond relying on geopolitical volatility and focus on structural improvements: stabilizing product quality, standardizing specifications, and establishing direct apertures into Chinese distribution networks. Without these reforms, the 2025 boom may prove to be a fleeting windfall rather than a permanent foothold.

While these developments may not directly impact Vietnamese-American businesses—from the storefronts of Little Saigon to local phở restaurants—they underscore how Vietnam’s seafood industry is becoming more agile and proactive in navigating shifting regional trade patterns.