Ho Chi Minh City housing plan meets only 11% of demand from one million

HO CHI MINH CITY – More than 1 million people in Ho Chi Minh City will require social housing between 2026 and 2030, according to data released Jan. 16 by the Ho Chi Minh City Institute for Development Studies (HIDS).

Civil servants and public employees represent 70% of the projected demand, while industrial workers account for the remaining 30%. The report arrives as the central government tasks the city with developing nearly 200,000 social housing units during that same period.

The housing crunch is most acute in the city’s older urban districts, where nearly 860,000 residents are seeking affordable options. Approximately 68% of those in need prefer lease-to-own arrangements, with a majority requesting two-bedroom apartments.

While the city completed nearly 18,000 units between 2021 and 2025—hitting 99% of its internal target—officials noted this output met only 11% of the actual demand.

Planners identified a lack of cleared land, high compensation costs, and lengthy administrative red tape as the primary barriers to construction.

Financial support has also lagged. Only about 10% of the government’s 120 trillion VND preferential credit package has been disbursed, a shortfall attributed to restrictive borrowing conditions.

To address the crisis, Ho Chi Minh City is currently fast-tracking 58 projects. The city has also designated 2,000 hectares of land specifically for social housing development through 2040.

A deepening social security and urban crisis is gripping Ho Chi Minh City as new data reveals a staggering one million residents lack adequate housing. A report by the Ho Chi Minh City Institute for Development Studies (HIDS) exposes a systemic disconnect: while the municipal administration has technically achieved 99% of its 2021–2025 policy targets on paper, the output satisfies a mere 11% of actual market demand. This discrepancy calls into question the efficacy of current benchmarks and the government's ability to address the root causes of the shortage.

The obstacles cited—limited land funds, soaring costs, and bureaucratic friction—are not new developments; they are chronic ailments of Vietnamese urban management. The failure to mobilize capital is best illustrated by the government’s 120 trillion VND ($4.7 billion) credit package, which has seen a dismal 10% disbursement rate. The liquidity exists, yet institutional bottlenecks prevent it from reaching the projects that need it most.

Critically, the crisis has begun to marginalize the city’s own workforce, including civil servants and public sector employees. That even those with stable state employment are being priced out of the market indicates a complete decoupling of real estate prices from average household incomes.

While the city is increasingly looking toward the private sector for solutions, the appetite for investment remains low. Given the thin profit margins inherent in affordable housing, developers will likely remain on the sidelines without a radical shift in fiscal incentives and regulatory streamlining. Unless the administration addresses these structural constraints, its ambitious development plans risk repeating a familiar pattern: meeting administrative quotas while failing to solve the fundamental housing deficit.

For Vietnamese-Americans, the housing crisis in Saigon is a sobering reflection of the skyrocketing cost of living back home. Whether in the heart of Little Saigon or across the broader diaspora, many are finding it necessary to increase their monthly remittances just to help family members cover surging rents. This instability is a critical factor for anyone—from nail salon owners to those in the phở restaurant industry—considering an EB-5 investment or planning for retirement in Vietnam. The current climate highlights a real estate market that remains volatile and increasingly out of reach for middle-income earners, complicating the long-term plans of those navigating the F2B or H-1B processes who hope to one day secure a foothold back in the country.