Even if the agreement is signed, Israel is not bound by it — and that's why oil prices cannot truly cool down.
A Vietnamese American Family and This Month's Fuel Price Problem
Imagine a Vietnamese American household in the Houston suburbs — an oil and gas engineer and his wife who works as a nurse, owning two cars, tracking gas prices week by week to calculate commuting costs and remittances to Vietnam each month. Last weekend, they were not watching Middle East news for humanitarian reasons alone — they were watching because their wallet depends directly on what happens at the Strait of Hormuz.
This is not a distant concern. Before the US-Iran conflict erupted, Hormuz was a shipping route carrying 20% of global crude oil. When Iran blockades the strait, the global energy supply chain tightens, oil prices climb, and the Federal Reserve must balance fighting inflation against avoiding recession — a problem with no easy solution for mortgage holders or those waiting for interest rate cuts to buy real estate.
Agreement Unsigned, Risks Remain
President Trump posted on Truth Social that a framework agreement would be signed on June 15, 2026 — his 80th birthday. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif confirmed Islamabad is preparing for an electronic signing ceremony on Sunday, to be followed by technical negotiations next week. However, Tehran has not confirmed, with Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei stating the event will not take place the next day but could occur "in the coming days.
This ambiguity is not a peripheral detail — it is the largest variable the financial markets are pricing by the hour. For Vietnamese Americans investing in real estate in California, Texas, or Virginia, mortgage interest rates remain elevated in part due to unsettled inflation expectations, and inflation remains unsettled in part because energy prices remain volatile due to conflict.
Israel Refuses to Stop, and Here's Why It Matters
One factor often overlooked in brief news reports: Israel declares itself not a signatory to any US-Iran agreement. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has clashed directly with Trump over demands to halt military operations in Lebanon. In the past 24 hours, Israel has struck over 70 locations in Lebanon targeting Hezbollah — Tehran's ally.
This means that even if a US-Iran agreement is signed, Lebanon could continue sinking into conflict. That scenario complicates the picture of regional stability and keeps oil prices more unpredictable than a comprehensive ceasefire would produce.
Iran's Hardliners — a Risk to the Agreement Itself
Even if the framework agreement is signed, the actual implementation question becomes key. In Iran, those opposed to the agreement have gathered outside the Foreign Ministry in Tehran, criticizing Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi as "compromising." Experts assess that although Iran's military has been severely degraded after US and Israeli strikes since February 28, 2026, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) maintains deeper control than it did before the war.
For Vietnamese Americans sending remittances to Vietnam — one of the significant money flows in the community — the exchange rate depends in part on the strength of the US dollar, which in turn reacts to inflation expectations and Federal Reserve interest rates. A substantive agreement reopening Hormuz would push oil prices down, reduce inflationary pressure, and create conditions for the Fed to cut rates — all good news for those sending money and for the US real estate market.
What to Watch This Week
Three things Vietnamese Americans should observe: First, whether the signing ceremony takes place on Sunday — and if not, how the energy market reacts at the opening of trading Monday. Second, the specific content of the "memorandum of understanding" on reopening Hormuz and lifting the US naval blockade — this is the actual mechanism affecting oil prices, not political statements. Third, how Israel responds after the agreement is signed — whether the Lebanon campaign continues.
For Vietnamese real estate investors waiting for the right moment to buy or refinance a mortgage, this is a week to watch more closely than any domestic economic report.
Read the full original Bangkok Post report at the source link below.