The 2026 Texas Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton is revealing a striking paradox at the border: Latino voters, many of whom backed Trump to tighten border security, are increasingly anxious about the Trump administration's mass deportation campaign. For the Vietnamese-American community in Texas — many of whom own nail salons, restaurants, auto repair shops and commonly hire immigrant workers of multiple ethnicities — this development is not unfamiliar: widespread ICE fear could directly affect their labor supply and whether Latino customers dare venture out to shop, repair their cars, or dine out, according to reporting by Texas Tribune.
Fear of deportation may make crime statistics appear better than reality.
From Opposing Border Crossings to Fearing Deportation
In 2024, Eagle Pass became a symbol of the push to tighten border security, when thousands of police and National Guard troops were deployed to patrol the Rio Grande and Trump won Maverick County with 59% of the vote. But by July 2026, when Talarico visited Eagle Pass, unauthorized border crossings had reached near-historic lows under Trump administration immigration policies — yet voter sentiment had shifted from frustration about border crossings to fear of deportation campaigns. A survey cited by Texas Tribune showed that one in five Hispanic business owners in Texas had at least one employee deported.
This is the link that brings this story home to the Vietnamese-American community in Texas even though it does not directly affect Vietnamese people: Vietnamese nail salon owners, restaurant owners, and auto repair shop owners in Houston and the Gulf Coast region typically hire immigrant workers of multiple ethnicities — when widespread ICE fear takes hold, it directly affects their labor supply and whether Latino customers dare venture out to shop, dine, or get their cars repaired.
Lessons from Secure Communities
History has already shown the consequences of stepped-up immigration enforcement at the community level. After ICE launched the Secure Communities program in 2008 to identify immigrants in local jails, the rate at which Latino victims reported crimes to police declined by approximately 30%, according to data cited by inkl. Police chiefs in Los Angeles and Houston have publicly stated that fear of deportation was the reason for reduced crime reporting from Latino residents. This raises a question: does the sharp crime decline in Texas — down 13% from 2024 to 2025 according to the Texas Department of Public Safety — reflect genuine public safety or merely the consequence of victims being too afraid to report crimes.
Two Approaches, One Wavering Constituency
Talarico has unveiled his own border security plan, including hiring additional border patrol officers and immigration judges while opposing plans to build a wall across Big Bend National Park. In contrast, Paxton's campaign has criticized Talarico for voting against two state immigration laws and claims to have gained support from the largest union of border patrol agents.
Legally, the context is even more complicated as the U.S. Supreme Court recently ruled to restrict appeal rights for those denied at the credible fear screening stage, making the legal asylum pathway increasingly narrow — a detail that Vietnamese-American voters who have experienced asylum journeys should particularly note.
What to Watch
The Texas Senate election will be a test of whether border voters — many of whom remain Republican — are willing to support a border security policy that is "tough but controlled." For the Vietnamese-American business owner community in Texas, the practical question is: will the immigrant workforce that many shops depend on remain stable, and will Latino customers continue to venture out.