U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield Rises for Third Consecutive Session, Reaches 4.63%

The yield on U.S. Treasury securities with a 10-year maturity has just recorded its third consecutive session of gains, according to data from the U.S. Treasury released through FRED. This is not an isolated movement in a single session, but rather an upward trend extending over the last three trading periods, closing at 4.63% on July 21, 2026 — the highest level across the entire 259-period observation window dating from July 9, 2025.

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield

Compared to the previous session on July 20, 2026 (4.60%), the yield increased by an additional 0.03 percentage points. However, looking more broadly, the current level of 4.63% is now 0.25 percentage points higher than the same period last year — when the yield stood at 4.38% on July 21, 2025. Compared to the average of 4.57% for the recent two-week period (from July 6 to July 21, 2026), the current yield is also 0.06 percentage points higher, and is at the exact highest point of this fluctuation range (4.48% to 4.63%). Throughout the entire 259 periods being tracked, the peak reached was 4.67% and the low was 3.97% — meaning the current level is at the 100th percentile, that is, the highest in this entire data series.

For Vietnamese people in the United States considering buying a home, the common question is: does the mortgage rate follow the 10-year Treasury yield? Related data shows a notable difference. The federal funds rate set by the Federal Reserve (Fed) — according to Federal Reserve (FRED) — is currently at 3.63% (as of June 1, 2026), down as much as 16.17% compared to last year. Meanwhile, the fixed 30-year mortgage rate — according to Freddie Mac (FRED) — still stands at 6.55% (as of July 16, 2026), down only 2.96% compared to last year. In other words, the Fed's policy rate has declined sharply, but the mortgage rate that consumers actually have to pay has barely budged. These are two different data series, drawn from two different sources, and the 10-year bond data in this article does not explain the cause of this difference — it can only be noted that these two figures are moving in two inconsistent directions.

For those sending remittances or holding U.S. dollar savings, the fact that the 10-year Treasury yield has reached new highs for three consecutive sessions — and is currently at the 100th percentile compared to the entire past year — is a signal that long-term cost of capital in the United States is anchored in uncharted territory across this 259-period observation window. For those planning to take out a mortgage to buy a home, the current fixed 30-year mortgage rate is 6.55%, according to Freddie Mac — this is the specific figure that needs to be cross-referenced when calculating a loan, rather than simply looking at whether the Fed rate has declined.

Data source: U.S. Treasury (FRED) ↗ · Chart and analysis by Saigon Sentinel