The military campaign by the US and Israel targeting Iran has stretched on since late February, when the two countries attacked Iran after diplomatic negotiations collapsed. Nearly two weeks of continuous airstrikes took place this month, before the US paused the bombing campaign for three consecutive nights starting Friday evening, on the advice of senior military commanders. Admiral Bradley Cooper, the top US military commander in the region, told Trump that the campaign had reached the limits of effectiveness and the US had nearly exhausted its list of developed targets to strike in Iran.
As the ceasefire brokered by Trump earlier collapsed, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flew to Washington on Monday to meet with Trump — the eighth in-person meeting between the two since Trump returned to the White House. According to Axios and confirmed by Trump himself to the New York Post, he once called Netanyahu "f---ing crazy" during a phone call, even though both publicly say they have only "tactical disagreements" and remain friends. Netanyahu, who has long criticized Washington's negotiations with Iran and pushed for continued airstrikes, faces political pressure ahead of Israel's scheduled elections in October.
The conflict has claimed at least 18 American soldiers killed, with four dying in just the past few days. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told lawmakers the conflict has consumed at least $29 billion in ammunition and equipment over 74 days, not counting damage to bases. The Pentagon is requesting Congress approve an additional $67 billion for weapons production and supply, while US commanders are reportedly allowing some Iranian missiles and drones to get through the defense system to conserve reserves. This budget request comes to the Senate at a moment when the chamber lacks a senior voice on defense spending, after Senator Lindsey Graham — a senior member of the Appropriations Committee — died suddenly over the weekend.
A US admiral said the bombing campaign had reached the limits of effectiveness and was nearly running out of targets to strike.
History: the path to the meeting
US-Iran tensions are nothing new. Before the conflict erupted, Washington and Tehran sat down for negotiations in Switzerland in a process expected to last 60 days over Iran's nuclear program, accompanied by the US easing certain oil sanctions to build goodwill. But that effort collapsed, leading to the US and Israeli strikes on Iran starting in late February. The Trump administration initially predicted the campaign would last only 4 to 6 weeks, but reality has far exceeded that timeline. The conflict has caused a global energy shock, driving up prices for oil, gas, and fertilizer, which has lowered Trump's approval ratings among voters who view cost of living as a top priority.
Precedent: common occurrence or unprecedented?
A multi-month conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran — with direct participation of US military forces and American soldier casualties — is unusual compared to previous US-Iran tensions, which typically remained at the level of economic sanctions or sporadic clashes that did not drag on continuously for weeks. The fact that the US military has had to calculate how to conserve weapons rather than intercept all opposing missiles is also a rare sign of pressure on the defense reserve stockpile. US intelligence, according to reporting by the New York Times cited by Al Jazeera, assesses that Iran still retains approximately 70% of its mobile launch platforms and missile stocks from before the war — suggesting the adversary has not weakened as much as the US expected, despite nearly two weeks of sustained attacks.
The need for international allies to deploy forces to protect shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz — which carries about 20% of the world's oil and gas — is also a response on a scale rarely seen since previous Middle Eastern oil crises. Trump's own desire to leave room for negotiations while keeping the possibility of further strikes open reflects a conflict with no clear off-ramp, rather than one following a familiar script.
Even as he meets with Netanyahu, Trump is also preparing to fly to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, where both the Iran issue and Taiwan figure on the agenda — China is currently Iran's largest trading partner and leading crude oil buyer. This development shows the Iran conflict is no longer a bilateral matter between the US, Israel, and Iran, but has become a link in Washington's larger diplomatic calculations with Beijing.
Has the US won and is the war with Iran about to end?
There is no evidence of that. The US has only temporarily halted airstrikes to make room for negotiations, not declared victory. US intelligence assesses that Iran still retains most of its missiles and launch platforms, and US military officials acknowledge that America's own weapons stockpiles are being depleted, showing that neither side has achieved a decisive military objective.
Why do Trump and Netanyahu appear to disagree even though they are allies?
Netanyahu wants the US to continue more aggressive airstrikes and faces political pressure ahead of Israel's elections, while some US military advisors and officials, including Vice President JD Vance, have warned Trump of the risks of further escalation. Both still claim to be close allies, describing the disagreement as merely a difference in tactics.
How are ordinary Americans affected by this war?
The war has contributed to driving up prices for gasoline, natural gas, and fertilizer globally, directly affecting the cost of living for American families. Polls show that most Americans do not support the war, and this has also led to declining approval ratings for Trump among voters concerned about prices.
Why did the US let some Iranian missiles through instead of intercepting all of them?
This is not a failure of defense but a calculated decision: US military commanders prioritized preserving part of the air defense stockpile rather than using it all to stop every target, in a context where ammunition supplies are declining and the Pentagon must request Congress approve additional budget for supplemental production.
Does the Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing relate to the Iran war?
It does, because China is Iran's largest oil buyer and has diplomatic relations with Tehran, so the Iran issue is on the agenda between Trump and Xi Jinping. However, Trump says Iran is not the main focus of the trip, and he maintains that the situation is under control.