China hits record $1 trillion trade surplus in 2025, challenging Trump’s trade policies

BEIJING — China reported a record trade surplus of $1.189 trillion for 2025, according to customs data released Wednesday, as the country’s manufacturing sector surged despite renewed pressure from the administration of President Donald Trump.

The annual surplus first crossed the historic $1 trillion threshold in November. Since Trump returned to the White House last January, Chinese firms have increasingly pivoted toward markets in Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America to offset the impact of U.S. tariffs.

Trade performance in December significantly outperformed market expectations. Exports rose 6.6% compared to the same period the previous year, more than doubling the 3.0% growth projected by economists. Imports also climbed 5.7%, beating analyst forecasts.

Vice Minister of Customs Wang Jun acknowledged that the global environment remains challenging. However, he emphasized that China’s resilience has strengthened as the nation continues to diversify its trading partners.

The automotive industry fueled much of the growth, with total vehicle exports rising 19.4% over the past year. Driven by a 48.8% spike in electric vehicle shipments, the data suggests China is poised to maintain its position as the world’s top auto exporter.

China’s 2025 trade surplus data delivers a sobering reality check one year into the second Trump administration: U.S. tariffs, while successful in curtailing direct imports, have failed to derail Beijing’s global export engine. Rather than stifling growth, trade barriers have acted as a catalyst, forcing Chinese manufacturers to evolve into more agile and resilient global players.

Beijing’s strategic pivot toward Southeast Asian markets represents a calculated, two-pronged maneuver. While this redirection has effectively mitigated losses from the U.S. market, it has unleashed a wave of intense competitive pressure on regional economies. Vietnam, in particular, finds itself in a precarious position. Once the primary beneficiary of the "China Plus One" supply chain diversification, Vietnamese firms now face a dual threat: an influx of Chinese goods at home and a battle for market share in third-party export destinations.

The underlying driver of this surge remains China’s domestic malaise. With a protracted real estate slump and tepid consumer demand at home, Beijing is doubling down on an export-led growth model to sustain its economy. A trade surplus now rivaling the GDP of a major G20 economy will almost certainly aggravate global anxieties regarding industrial overcapacity and predatory trade practices. Despite tactical de-escalation measures—such as Beijing’s recent elimination of export tax rebates for the solar industry—the fundamental trade imbalance remains skewed. This underscores a broader reality: the global trade war is far from over; it has simply entered a more complex and geographically dispersed phase.

For Vietnamese-American small business owners, particularly those in the import sector, China’s massive export capacity has helped keep consumer prices relatively affordable. However, for those operating in manufacturing or industries facing direct competition, the pressure is intensifying. Chinese goods aren’t just competing on American soil; they are saturating global markets, undermining the "Made in Vietnam" brand that many in the diaspora have worked hard to champion. This competitive threat extends beyond China itself, as Chinese-funded factories in neighboring Southeast Asian countries continue to challenge the market share of Vietnamese-led enterprises.