A Shot Changes the Landscape
On February 22, 2026, Mexican military forces conducted a raid in the town of Tapalpa, Jalisco state, killing Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes — also known as "El Mencho" — the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), one of Mexico's two most powerful criminal organizations and the largest network for smuggling fentanyl into the United States. Oseguera Cervantes was injured in the raid and died en route to Mexico City by helicopter.
This was no ordinary operation. According to CBS News sources, it was the result of significantly expanded intelligence cooperation between Washington and Mexico City under President Claudia Sheinbaum — a notable development given that bilateral relations were highly strained during Trump's first term. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau confirmed the U.S. provided intelligence, while the White House emphasized the role of the Joint Interagency Task Force Against Cartels under the U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM). No U.S. military personnel were present on the ground.
But immediately after the news broke, Mexico was shaken. More than 252 roadblocks with burning vehicles and barricades appeared across the country. 25 National Guard members were killed in six separate attacks in Jalisco. Puerto Vallarta Airport — a popular international tourist destination — was engulfed in black smoke. Reynosa Airport, a border city near McAllen, Texas, was completely blockaded by the cartel. Four professional soccer matches were postponed. International airlines — Air Canada, Southwest, Alaska Airlines, Delta — canceled numerous flights.
Mike Vigil, former Chief of International Operations for the DEA, called it "one of the most significant operations in the history of global drug trafficking." But history also shows: decapitating a snake rarely kills the snake. The real questions begin here.
Historical Context: From El Chapo to El Mencho — The "Hydra" Cycle
To understand the significance — and the limitations — of this event, one must look back at the history of Mexico's drug war.
After Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán was extradited to the U.S. in 2017 and sentenced to life in prison in 2019, the Sinaloa Cartel — once the dominant organization — entered a phase of internal fragmentation. Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada, co-founder of Sinaloa, was arrested in the U.S. in February 2025 in a shocking operation. The power vacuum in Sinaloa created conditions for CJNG to expand its influence widely.
CJNG under El Mencho was notorious for its systematic brutality. It was a pioneering cartel in launching explosives from drones, planting roadside bombs, and attacking military helicopters — tactics reminiscent of guerrilla warfare rather than traditional organized crime. In 2020, CJNG carried out an assassination attempt in downtown Mexico City targeting the capital's police chief using grenades and heavy assault rifles.
However, the "kingpin strategy" — a central Washington strategy since the 1990s — has a well-documented paradox: each time a leader falls, violence often escalates rather than decreases. When El Chapo was arrested, Sinaloa fragmented into many factions, leading to bloody territorial wars. When the leader of the Beltrán-Leyva Cartel was brought down, the organization disintegrated into dozens of smaller, more aggressive groups. This phenomenon is called the "Hydra effect" by crime researchers — cut off one head, and many more grow back.
With El Mencho, the situation could be even more complex. Érick Valencia Salazar, alias "El 85," who co-founded CJNG with El Mencho, was extradited to the U.S. in February 2025 among 29 arrested cartel leaders. This means both founding figures of CJNG have been taken out of action in less than 13 months. The question is not whether CJNG will collapse — but who will seize control of the billion-dollar network, and how.
Geopolitics: The Trump-Sheinbaum-Cartel Three-Sided Game
Noteworthy was the political reaction from Washington. Just one day after the operation, which the White House itself acknowledged involved U.S. intelligence, President Trump wrote on social media: "Mexico must step up its efforts against Cartels and Drugs!" — a statement that almost completely ignored the recently achieved success.
This speaks volumes about internal U.S. political dynamics. For Trump, the fight against cartels is not just a security issue but a constant negotiating tool — related to tariffs, immigration, and trade balance. Not "crediting" Sheinbaum allows Trump to maintain pressure on Mexico, regardless of actual outcomes.
For President Sheinbaum, this operation is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it's concrete proof that Mexico is serious about tackling cartels — which could help reduce pressure from Washington regarding economic sanctions. On the other hand, the post-operation violence — 25 National Guard members killed, over 250 roadblocks — exposed the Mexican state's limited capacity for territorial control. On social media, Ms. Sheinbaum tried to reassure: "In most of the national territory, activities are completely normal." But images of Puerto Vallarta airport engulfed in smoke and panicked passengers fleeing contradicted that message.
Another important detail: Guadalajara — the capital of Jalisco state, Mexico's second-largest city — is one of the planned host cities for the 2026 World Cup this summer. FIFA and the tournament organizers are certainly monitoring closely. If violence persists or re-erupts, pressure to move matches to other venues will increase — a heavy blow to Mexico's prestige and economy.
Fentanyl Perspective: When the Supply is Disrupted
CJNG is one of two primary sources of fentanyl supply to the United States, along with the Sinaloa Cartel. Fentanyl — a synthetic opioid 50 times stronger than heroin — killed over 70,000 Americans annually during its peak from 2021-2023. Although the number has slightly decreased to an estimated 58,000 by 2025 according to CDC, fentanyl remains the leading cause of death for Americans under 50.
El Mencho's death will disrupt the supply chain, but not necessarily in a positive way. When the command structure is broken, transportation routes can fragment into more numerous, smaller, and harder-to-track channels. Fentanyl precursors — largely imported from China — remain readily available. Production capacity lies at the laboratory level, not at the leadership level. In other words, El Mencho was the CEO, not the factory.
Even more concerning is that the power vacuum could trigger territorial wars among factions within CJNG, between CJNG and Sinaloa, and among smaller groups vying for a piece of the pie. History shows that cartel wars often come with an increase in violence on both sides of the border — including U.S. border cities like El Paso, McAllen, and San Diego.
The "Kingpin Strategy": Does it Work? What the Evidence Says
Organized crime researchers have debated the kingpin strategy for three decades. Empirical evidence is not optimistic.
A 2021 Stanford University study analyzing 60 cases of cartel leader removals from 2006 to 2020 found that in 70% of cases, violence increased in the 12 months following the leader's demise. Homicide rates in affected states rose by an average of 30%. Only in about 15% of cases did the removal of a leader lead to a real decline in the organization — and usually only when combined with financial controls and institutional rebuilding measures at the local level.
Mike Vigil, former DEA, while praising the operation, also acknowledged the reality by pointing out that CJNG "is trying to show that they are still a formidable force" through retaliatory violence. 252 roadblocks nationwide in a few hours indicate CJNG's capacity for national-scale mobilization and coordination — a sign that the organization does not collapse merely due to the loss of a leader.
More important than El Mencho's death is the question: Will Mexico and the U.S. pursue a more comprehensive strategy? Controlling precursors from China. Disrupting international money laundering networks. Reforming Mexico's local justice and police systems. Addressing drug demand in the U.S. Without these elements, bringing down El Mencho — while symbolically powerful — is merely a new chapter in an endless war.
Outlook: Three Scenarios for the Next 12 Months
Scenario 1 — Fragmentation and Internal War (highest probability, ~50%): CJNG splits into at least two or three factions. Violence escalates in Jalisco, Michoacán, Guanajuato, and neighboring states as factions vie for territory. Fentanyl continues to flow into the U.S. through more dispersed channels.
Scenario 2 — Rapid Succession (~30%): A deputy of El Mencho quickly consolidates power, maintaining CJNG's structure relatively intact. Violence decreases after the initial chaotic period, but the drug network continues to operate almost normally.
Scenario 3 — Real Decline (~20%): Combined with sustained U.S.-Mexico pressure, financial controls, and the arrest of more mid-level leaders, CJNG severely weakens. This is the best-case scenario but requires sustained political will from both sides — a rarity in U.S.-Mexico relations.
Conclusion: Tactical Victory, Strategic Questions
El Mencho's death is an undeniable tactical victory. It is the result of U.S.-Mexico intelligence cooperation at a level few would have predicted under Sheinbaum-Trump. It removes one of the world's most dangerous criminals from action.
But if history is any guide, the coming weeks and months will show whether this is a real turning point or just a new chapter in the cycle of violence. 25 National Guard members paid with their lives. 252 roadblocks in one night demonstrate the power CJNG still holds. And somewhere in clandestine labs in Jalisco, fentanyl is still being produced. The war continues.