Introduction: Gold is not just metal — it is psychology
At the beginning of 2025, gold prices broke new nominal records, surpassing the $2,450/ounce mark. By March 2026, gold prices continued to fluctuate at historically high levels, prompting global investment circles — and especially the Vietnamese-American community in the U.S. — to reconsider fundamental questions: what truly drives gold prices, and is this the right time to buy, sell, or simply hold?
For many Vietnamese-American families, gold is not merely an asset class in an investment portfolio. Gold is memory — golden threads sewn into clothing when crossing the border, quantities of SJC gold sent home to loved ones in Saigon, or pieces of gold carefully stored in a safe that the parent generation views as a final life insurance against all upheaval. Understanding gold prices, therefore, is not just a macroeconomic exercise — it is understanding how a diaspora community manages intergenerational risk.
This analysis delves into five main pillars that shape gold prices in the current context, placing them within a long-term historical framework, and assesses specific impacts for Vietnamese people in the United States.
First Pillar: Central Banks — the biggest players at the chessboard
Central banks worldwide currently hold approximately one-fifth of all gold ever mined in human history. When these institutions buy or sell gold on a large scale, the ripple effects spread across the entire market.
During 2022-2025, the most prominent trend has been a wave of net gold purchases from central banks of emerging market economies — particularly China, India, Turkey, and a series of Southeast Asian nations. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) continuously augmented gold reserves over more than 18 consecutive months through the end of 2024, a strong signal of a strategy to diversify foreign exchange reserves away from the U.S. dollar.
This move did not happen in a vacuum. It reflects a deeper geopolitical trend: after the West froze approximately $300 billion in Russian foreign exchange reserves following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, many countries began questioning whether USD-denominated assets are truly "safe" if they can be confiscated by political decision. Gold — a physical asset with no counterparty risk — became the logical choice.
For Vietnam, the State Bank also maintains a certain amount of gold reserves, although the exact figures are not disclosed transparently. What is more noteworthy is Hanoi's policy of managing the domestic gold market — particularly the SJC brand monopoly mechanism — which has created a price gap between domestic and international gold of up to $100-200/ounce at many points during 2024-2025. This price spread directly affects those who remit funds to Vietnam with the intention of converting them to gold.
Second Pillar: Inflation, the U.S. Dollar, and the real interest rate equation
The relationship between gold and the U.S. dollar is typically described as inverse: when the greenback weakens, gold priced in USD tends to rise, since international buyers find gold relatively cheaper. Conversely, a strong U.S. dollar typically puts downward pressure on gold prices.
However, the 2024-2026 period has partly broken this traditional logic. Gold prices continued to rise even as the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at relatively high levels and inflation had cooled significantly compared to 2022 peaks. This forced many analysts to reconsider traditional models.
One explanation: the market is pricing not just current inflation, but also expectations about U.S. public debt — currently exceeding $36 trillion — and the possibility that the Fed will ultimately have to ease monetary policy so the federal government can continue servicing its debt burden. In other words, gold is reflecting a long-term vote of no confidence in American fiscal discipline, not merely reacting to last month's CPI reading.
For Vietnamese people in the United States — particularly nail salon owners, restaurant proprietors, and small retailers — this situation creates an interesting paradox. High interest rates increase borrowing costs for business operations, but simultaneously high gold prices mean their traditional asset reserves are generating returns. Many Vietnamese-origin families in Westminster, Garden Grove, or Houston still maintain the habit of holding physical gold alongside 401(k) accounts, creating a kind of spontaneous diversification that mainstream financial advisors sometimes overlook.
Third Pillar: Supply — when gold mining becomes increasingly difficult
Global gold mining output currently adds approximately 2% to 3% to the total stock of gold on Earth each year. This figure is surprisingly small — meaning that unlike oil or copper, gold prices are less driven by short-term supply fluctuations but rather primarily reflect changes in demand and market sentiment.
However, the supply side is not entirely static. Mining costs continue to rise due to stricter environmental regulations, easily extractable ore sources dwindling, and energy costs — a key factor in mine operations — fluctuating sharply. The largest gold-producing nations — China, Russia, Australia, Canada, the United States, and Ghana — all face their own challenges, from political instability (Ghana, Russia) to increasingly stringent regulations (Australia, Canada).
One underappreciated point: recycled gold — primarily from old jewelry — accounts for approximately 25-30% of annual supply. When gold prices rise sharply, many people sell old gold to lock in profits, creating a self-correcting effect of sorts. Within Vietnamese diaspora communities, particularly in the Little Saigon area (Orange County, California) and Houston's Midtown district, gold shops like Kim Thanh or Bảo Tín are not merely trading places — they function as informal financial institutions where gold prices are monitored closely daily in both international and domestic SJC prices.
Fourth Pillar: Geopolitical instability and the "safe haven" psychology
Gold possesses a characteristic that no other asset class shares to the same degree: it functions as insurance against extreme events that most financial models cannot predict. War, banking crises, pandemics, currency collapse — gold tends to appreciate precisely during periods when most other assets are being liquidated.
In 2026, the list of geopolitical risks is hardly short: U.S.-China tensions continue to escalate around Taiwan and trade issues, the conflict in Ukraine remains unresolved, turmoil in the Middle East persists, and the tariff war (tariffs) that the U.S. administration continues to pursue create uncertainty for global supply chains. Each of these factors has the potential to push gold prices higher.
For overseas Vietnamese communities, the South China Sea dimension is particularly noteworthy. Any escalation of tensions between China and Southeast Asian nations — including Vietnam — could have a dual impact: both pushing global gold prices up (through risk sentiment) and affecting remittances and Vietnamese diaspora investments in Vietnam. In the worst-case scenario, Vietnamese people in the United States might find themselves again in a familiar position — relying on gold as a final safety cushion, just as the previous generation did in April 1975.
Fifth Pillar: ETF capital flows and the democratization of gold investment
The emergence of gold ETFs from the early 2000s fundamentally changed market structure. As of December 2025, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and its smaller counterpart GLDM alone hold over 39.5 million ounces of gold — valued at over $167 billion. Investors no longer need to buy physical gold, rent a safe deposit box, or worry about theft — they simply need a brokerage account.
This represents a transformation with special significance for second and third-generation Vietnamese-American families. While their grandparents and parents are familiar with gold bars and 24K gold rings, younger generations — those who grew up with Robinhood, Fidelity, and Schwab — tend to approach gold through GLD, IAU, or asset allocation funds with gold components. This shift is not merely about means but also about philosophy: from gold as "savings" to gold as "a diversified asset class in a portfolio.
However, it should be stated plainly: when comparing long-term performance, gold significantly underperforms stocks. $100 invested in gold in 1972 would become approximately $6,700 by 2025. The same $100 invested in the S&P 500 would become over $24,000 — nearly four times as much. Gold is not a wealth-creation tool; gold is a wealth-preservation tool. This distinction is important, and it is not always clearly understood within the Vietnamese diaspora community, where gold is sometimes elevated beyond its actual role.
Vietnamese diaspora perspective: Remittances, price spreads, and intergenerational wealth transfer
In 2025, official remittances to Vietnam are estimated to exceed $19 billion, with the United States remaining the largest source of remittances. A significant portion of remittances is converted by recipients into gold — particularly in major cities like Saigon and Hanoi. When domestic SJC gold prices are $100-200/ounce higher than international prices, this means remittances converted to gold are subject to an "implicit tax" from the price spread — an issue directly created by Vietnam's State Bank gold management policy.
Simultaneously, the intergenerational wealth transfer within Vietnamese diaspora communities is raising practical questions: as the Vietnamese-diaspora baby boomer generation — those who came to the United States in waves of migration from 1975-1995 — begins transferring assets to their children, physical gold accumulated over decades must be valued, divided, or sold. The inheriting generation, accustomed to digital financial markets, may choose to liquidate physical gold and move into more modern investment channels — creating a source of recycled gold supply within the community itself.
Conclusion: Gold in the 2026 context — neither panic nor superstition
Gold prices at historically high levels in 2026 reflect the convergence of multiple factors: record central bank net purchases, multifaceted geopolitical instability, ballooning U.S. public debt, and strong ETF capital flows. This is not purely a bubble — there is fundamental support.
But neither should there be confusion: gold is not a panacea. It preserves value during crises but significantly underperforms stocks during periods of stable growth. For Vietnamese-American investors, a reasonable allocation probably lies in the 5-15% range of a portfolio for gold (through ETFs or physical) — enough to have a safety cushion without sacrificing long-term growth potential.
Most importantly, perhaps, is recognizing that the Vietnamese relationship with gold carries deep historical and emotional significance — and this is not a bad thing. But good financial decisions require separating memory from strategy. Gold deserves a place in an investment portfolio — but that place should be determined by data, not by fear.