63 million USD — that is the amount that Senator John Cornyn's campaign and allied groups have spent from fall 2025 until now, according to AP, to protect a seat that no one expected would need protecting. Yet that seat continues to teeter.
This is not equal treatment. This is the art of someone unwilling to pay a price when betting wrong.
The 'Air Force One' Performance and the Art of Staying Neutral
On May 15, 2026, when Air Force One landed in Corpus Christi, Texas, Senator John Cornyn was on board — flying alongside President Donald Trump, posting photos on social media as though physical proximity to the president was evidence of political endorsement. But when Trump addressed the crowd, he did not say what Cornyn wanted to hear.
"We have an outstanding attorney general, Ken Paxton. Where is Ken? Hello Ken," Trump said. Then immediately after: "We have an outstanding senator, John Cornyn. Hello John." And then came Wesley Hunt, a third candidate, whom Trump also called "a friend of mine who is doing very well." According to AP, Trump admitted he "had almost decided" whom he would support — but refused to say the name.
This is not equal treatment. This is the art of someone unwilling to pay a price when betting wrong.
Three Candidates, Three Double-Edged Swords
John Cornyn is running for his fifth term. He has experience, a network, and clear backing from Senate leadership — Majority Leader John Thune and Senator Tim Scott, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), both publicly urged Trump to endorse him. Scott even declared bluntly on Fox News on May 13, 2026, according to AP: "There is a significant likelihood we will not hold Texas if John Cornyn is not our nominee.
But Cornyn carries two wounds in the eyes of Texas grassroots Republican voters: he once showed coolness toward Trump's comeback campaign in 2024, and he co-authored a gun control measure passed after the Robb Elementary School shooting in Uvalde in 2022 — which killed 19 students and 2 teachers. For Texas Republican voters, the gun is not simply a weapon — it is a symbol of culture and political identity.
Ken Paxton is the most dramatic case among the three. This former Texas attorney general survived an impeachment vote for fraud in 2023 — acquitted by the Texas Senate — and returned as a hero in the eyes of conservative voters who saw the impeachment as political theater. But Paxton also faces adultery allegations from his own wife, state Senator Angela Paxton. This is the kind of scandal hard to defend in a statewide election.
Wesley Hunt, a second-term U.S. representative from the Houston area, is the youngest candidate and entered the race latest. He endorsed Trump early in the 2024 presidential campaign, was invited to speak during prime time at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, and is positioning himself as a fresh breeze unburdened by the political baggage of his two rivals.
Why Won't Trump Choose?
The short answer: because all three options carry risks, and Trump does not want to bear responsibility if his chosen candidate loses.
But the longer answer is far more complex. Trump has previously demonstrated the ability to "steer" primary results with a single tweet — he did so in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and many other states. That he refuses to do so in Texas before March 3 (the primary election date) — and instead waits until the last moment — suggests he is carefully weighing the following factors:
First, if he endorses Cornyn and Cornyn loses, that damages the "Trump brand." Texas grassroots have signaled their attitude toward Cornyn through multiple polls — he is not beloved by the most conservative voters.
Second, if he endorses Paxton and Paxton wins the primary but loses in the general election in November, that is a disaster. According to AP, Republican leadership worries that the Texas seat will consume hundreds of millions of dollars to protect with Paxton as the nominee — money and resources the party needs on other battlegrounds.
Third, Hunt is the cleanest card — but an unpublished poll from early May 2026 (indirectly referenced through Cornyn's campaign beginning to attack Hunt) shows Hunt has momentum. If Hunt makes the runoff on May 26, the race truly opens up.
Structural Significance: The 2026 Midterm and the Senate Problem
Texas is not a swing state at the federal level in the traditional sense — Republicans have held this Senate seat continuously since the 1990s. But "safe" and "free" are two different things.
Looking back, Ted Cruz beat Beto O'Rourke in 2018 by only about 2.6 percentage points, according to the Federal Election Commission (FEC). In 2024, Cruz beat Colin Allred by a wider margin — about 12 percentage points according to AP — but that was a year Trump led Republican votes nationally. Midterm elections are always less favorable for the party in power.
Texas Democrats are conducting their own primary race between Representative James Talarico and Representative Jasmine Crockett — the candidate favored by progressive voters. Crockett has emerged as a political star among African American voters and younger voters after several fiery confrontations in Congress that spread widely on social media. If the Democratic side chooses a strong candidate and the Republican side has to spend hundreds of millions protecting a scandal-ridden Paxton — that is a formula for wasting resources precisely when the party needs to focus on more competitive Senate seats in Arizona, Nevada, or Michigan.
The Vietnamese American Community Perspective in Texas
The Vietnamese American community in Texas — particularly the Houston area, where an estimated 100,000 Vietnamese Americans live according to 2020 U.S. Census Bureau data — is not a monolithic voting bloc in this race.
A significant portion of Vietnamese Americans in Houston are loyal Republican voters, particularly first and second-generation immigrants deeply influenced by memories of 1975. For this group, both Paxton and Hunt have appeal — Paxton because of his image as an "unyielding conservative warrior" after his impeachment, Hunt because of his direct connection to the Houston area he represents in the House.
However, a younger cohort of voters, many of them small business owners in restaurants, nails, and services, are increasingly paying attention to substantive economic issues rather than party loyalty. Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin emphasized after Trump's Corpus Christi speech that "electricity costs, housing, and food are rising while jobs are disappearing at the fastest rate in the nation" in Texas — according to AP. This is language that touches the concerns of small businesses, including thousands of Vietnamese American families struggling with rent and operating costs.
Wesley Hunt — who represents a portion of the Houston area encompassing many diverse communities — will need to articulate a clearer stance on economics and immigration if he wants to maintain and expand his voter coalition in the rapidly changing Houston suburbs demographically.
Whataburger, Performance, and American Politics in 2026
After his speech at the Corpus Christi port — where Energy Secretary Chris Wright had just approved expanding liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by 12 percent at Cheniere Energy's facility, making it America's second-largest LNG export project, according to AP — Trump stopped at a local Whataburger, announcing he would buy hamburgers for everyone present.
This action was not random. It is political language designed for social media: down-to-earth, generous, Texan. Whataburger is a symbol of Texas culture powerful enough to become a viral moment — and virality is precisely what Trump needs to maintain his presence in a race he has not yet officially entered.
But this combination — the billion-dollar LNG decision and the hamburger purchase — clearly illustrates how Trump operates: major policy is implemented quietly behind the scenes (through appointments and cabinet decisions), while the public stage is reserved for emotional performances creating direct connections with voters.
Outlook and Possible Scenarios
If no one reaches 50 percent in the primary voting on March 3, 2026, the top two candidates will face a runoff on May 26, 2026. This is when Trump's card could decide everything — or become unnecessary.
Scenario 1 — Cornyn advances from the first round: Least likely. This would require Hunt not being strong enough to split Paxton votes sufficiently, and the conservative base voting pragmatically. Republican Senate leadership would breathe easy.
Scenario 2 — Cornyn faces Paxton in the runoff: Trump will almost certainly have to choose. Pressure from Thune and Scott will intensify. But Texas grassroots may pressure Trump in the opposite direction.
Scenario 3 — Hunt surges, enters the runoff: This is the scenario where Trump would likely be most satisfied — Hunt is the "clean" choice he can endorse without having to justify Cornyn's past or Paxton's scandals.
Regardless of scenario, the 2026 Texas race has become a test of the central question in Republican politics after Trump: is loyalty to Trump sufficient to win, or do candidates still need to be clean in the traditional sense?
Conclusion: Trump's Silence Has Value
In politics, sometimes silence speaks louder than statements. Trump flying with Cornyn on Air Force One but refusing to endorse him before the crowd is a dual message: enough to prevent Cornyn from completely collapsing, but not enough to silence Paxton and Hunt.
This is a familiar Trump tactic — maintaining leverage by never fully committing. But this time, the stakes are higher: a Senate seat in the second-largest state in America, in a context where Republicans need to maintain Senate control before the November 2026 midterm election, which is predicted to be fiercely competitive.
The Vietnamese American community in Houston — and more broadly in Texas — will be one of the factors worth watching in this election: not because they will decide the outcome, but because how they vote reflects deeper shifts in the conservative coalition that the Republican Party is trying to build and maintain in a changing Texas.