The Texas Senate race between Talarico and Paxton is being closely watched by many Vietnamese-American small business owners along the Gulf Coast, because the outcome could affect immigration policy — and through it, the immigrant workforce that Vietnamese nail salons, restaurants, and auto repair shops depend on. According to earlier reporting, many Vietnamese business owners in the Houston area and Gulf Coast region often hire workers from diverse ethnic backgrounds, making them sensitive to any changes in immigration policy.
In terms of numbers, the race is tightening in the most literal sense. Three consecutive recent polls all show Talarico leading Paxton, with the most recent poll — released on a Tuesday morning — showing Talarico ahead 47% to 45%, within the margin of error. A Texas Public Opinion Research poll conducted in mid-July showed a wider gap, with Talarico leading 45% to 40% — his largest lead of the general election season. However, a Texas Politics Project poll from mid-June showed Paxton slightly ahead, 43% to 42%, suggesting pollsters have not yet reached consensus on the actual trend.
The noteworthy point for Vietnamese Americans is not in the overall numbers, but in voter composition. In the Texas Public Opinion Research poll, Talarico led strongly among Black and Latino voters, while Paxton is only strong among white voters. A Fox News poll from late July also found Talarico supported by 59% of Latino voters. Vietnamese American voters in Houston and Little Saigon areas along the Texas coast typically are not broken out as separate groups by pollsters, but they share many demographic characteristics with Asian American voters in general: middle-class income, concern with immigration and tax policy, but difficult to capture by polling models due to small sample sizes.
If an attorney general's office is willing to investigate civil organizations promoting Latino voter registration, there is no guarantee other communities will be exempt.
Why Immigration Is the Linchpin
This race is not just about approval numbers, but about immigration policy — something that directly touches those who employ immigrant workers in the community. Following a campaign to step up immigration enforcement in Texas, an earlier survey found that one in five Latino business owners had at least one employee deported — a figure worth noting for Vietnamese nail salons, restaurants, and auto repair shops that also hire workers from diverse ethnic backgrounds. At the same time, the Secure Communities program caused the rate at which Latino crime victims reported crimes to drop roughly 30%, according to earlier reporting — an effect that could extend to any immigrant community living near a targeted group.
Additionally, the Texas attorney general's office under Paxton previously opened an investigation targeting nonprofit organizations promoting Latino voter registration, including an operation using undercover operatives at a vehicle registration point. This is a precedent worth monitoring for Vietnamese American organizations that also organize voter registration drives for elderly first-generation refugee populations — if an attorney general's office is willing to investigate Latino civil society organizations, there is no guarantee that other community organizations will be exempt.
On the opposing side, Paxton secured the Republican nomination after defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn thanks to support from President Trump, a decision that once made Republican Senate leadership publicly hesitant. Meanwhile, Talarico emerged from the Democratic primary with a victory of 53.1% to 45.6% over Representative Jasmine Crockett — if he wins in November, he will be the first Democrat elected to statewide office in Texas in over thirty years.
What to Watch
Support for Paxton is further depressed by a fairly high unfavorable rating: a poll by Texas A&M University found 54% of voters had a negative opinion of him. Given the wide variation among pollsters, the final result in November will likely depend on which candidate mobilizes Latino voters and independent voters to vote — a group both campaigns are fighting over. Vietnamese American voters wanting to closely follow the race should pay more attention to each candidate's specific immigration policy positions than to polling numbers that fluctuate week to week.